The World Order as we know it since being established at the end of the Cold War is unraveling. We’ve watched as China and Russia have maneuvered in power plays for world leadership. This leadership would mean dominance in economic and gaining territory, and become a threat to the well-being of secure countries especially in Europe and the Far East.

In an essay called “Enemy of My Enemy” by Michael Beckley, the author explains the types of power structures which work and don’t work in terms of world power. In simple terms one being a top down cooperative structure of negotiations and statesmanship, described as a liberal international order. The other being unification due to a common enemy. The strongest power structures in 400 years of history have been those formed in response to a common enemy.

Up until this current point of Russian aggression, the liberal order has been fraying. For 30 years we’ve not experienced a common threat that got the world’s attention. Now the world has the significant threat from both Russia and China.

Past world orders have been “orders of exclusion” designed to ostracize and outcompete rivals. In sociology this is called the “in group/ out group” structure, in history it was the fear of Carthage that united the Roman Republic. In politics it is called “negative partisanship. The tendency of voters to become intensely loyal to one party because they so despise” the other. This explains so much of the politically divided America we’ve seen in recent years. We view our fellow Americans as our enemy. I’m hoping that current events can be a catalyst for healing the division so prevalent today. Time after time those that united over a common enemy were victors in terms of world order.

Recent alliances were built after victories and they gradually morphed into agents of capitalist economies , free market democracies, and globalization. Without a common threat, they dissolved into weaker and unstable alliances. The reason being the unique hypocrisy which leads to their own demise including: Exclusions, rule breaking, and the squelching of domestic opposition to international rule making. Being repressive triggers an internal backlash. That backlash could be the liberal revolutions in the mid 1800s, the fascist powers of the 1930s, and in the 1940’s the teterritorial expansion of the USSR. “Exclusionary by nature, international orders inevitably incite opposition”.

Just like trying to change one partner in a new marriage does not work, expecting countries to abandon traditional beliefs does not work. As eloquently stated by the author. “the liberal order is, in fact, deeply exclusionary. By promoting free markets, open borders, democracy, supranational institutions, and the use of reason to solve problems, the order challenges traditional beliefs and institutions that have united communities for centuries: state sovereignty, nationalism, religion, race, tribe, family. By removing a common enemy we have lunleashed all sorts of nationalists, populists, religious and authoritarian opposition.”

If you look at the pillars of the post Cold War order, there are increasing global crises: Climate change, financial crisis, pandemics, misinformation, refugee influxes, and political extremism. All due to the liberal order and open system of unfettered flows across borders.

We need a new common enemy. This article could have been written about Russia when in fact it was written about China. More on the article to follow.